6 / 2025-07-05 20:12:33
Enhancing the reliability of displacement prediction of reservoir landslide through a physics-informed data augmentation framework
Reservoir landslide; Displacement prediction; Sequential Bayesian updating; Parameter evolution; Physics-informed data augmentation
摘要待审
Longhou Gan / Tongji University
Ming Peng / Tongji University
Accurately predicting landslide displacement remains challenging due to complex movement mechanisms and large uncertainties. Here, we develop a physics-informed data augmentation framework to tackle this challenge. By incorporating external drivers, including rainfall and reservoir water level, we establish quantitative relationships between key aging parameters (e.g., creep and strength parameters) and target indicators (e.g., responses of monitoring point (RMS)) using surrogate models. We use time-series monitoring data to sequentially update the probability distribution of aging parameters. The posterior distributions are used to adaptively and dynamically predict landslide displacement. We find that the temporal evolution of creep parameters closely resembles the observed displacement, exhibiting both a periodic pattern and a long-term growth trend, while the strength parameters show a consistent deterioration over time. These findings offer a mechanistic interpretation of the step-like deformation behavior. The integration of movement mechanisms and observed data not only reveals the evolutionary progress of aging parameters but also improves the reliability of prediction by effectively reducing uncertainties.
重要日期
  • 会议日期

    08月23日

    2025

    08月26日

    2025

  • 07月10日 2025

    初稿截稿日期

  • 08月26日 2025

    注册截止日期

主办单位
Southwest Jiaotong University, China (SWJTU)
International Consortium on Geo-disaster Reduction (ICGdR)
UNESCO Chair on Geoenvironmental Disaster Reduction
承办单位
Southwest Jiaotong University, China (SWJTU)
International Consortium on Geo-disaster Reduction (ICGdR)
UNESCO Chair on Geoenvironmental Disaster Reduction
联系方式
移动端
在手机上打开
小程序
打开微信小程序
客服
扫码或点此咨询