Rainfall suppression effect of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific and South China Sea
编号:88 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2025-03-26 14:28:44 浏览:6次 特邀报告

报告开始:2025年04月18日 16:00(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S1-5] 专题1.5 东亚季风短期气候预测及机理 [S1-5] 专题1.5 东亚季风短期气候预测及机理

暂无文件

摘要
    The tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause intense rain and destructive winds. While these catastrophic weather conditions capture our attention, the less-known impact of TCs remains overlooked. This study reveals that TCs have a notable suppressive effect on monsoonal rainfall in southern China when they traverse the South China Sea. This phenomenon can be attributed to the influence of these mesoscale disturbances on the quasi-stationary, large-scale monsoonal circulation, which alters the moisture pathway. Furthermore, the case-by-case analysis indicates that approximately 76% of TCs correspond to rainfall reduction, whereas the other 24% correspond to rainfall increase. The latter is due to the concurrent occurrence of another independent influencing factor: extratropical cyclonic anomalies that promote enhanced rainfall through favoring lower-tropospheric moisture convergence.
    On the other hand, TCs in the tropical western North Pacific can significantly suppress rainfall over the Maritime Continent and its surrounding seas. This suppression effect of TCs exists across all phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a dominant factor influencing MC rainfall on an intraseasonal timescale. TCs greatly alleviate rainfall enhancement during the convective phases of the MJO and aggravate rainfall suppression during the suppressive phases. Particularly, TCs reduce the likelihood of extremely high rainfall in convective MJO phases from 9% to 5% and increase the likelihood of extremely low rainfall in suppressive MJO phases from 10% to 16%. The rainfall suppression is attributed to the lower-tropospheric southwesterly anomalies to the south of TCs, which result in moisture divergence over the MC. Additionally, the upper-tropospheric equatorward outflows of TCs also promote subsidence and suppress rainfall.
关键词
tropical cyclone; rainfall suppression
报告人
李欣余
副教授 河海大学海洋学院

稿件作者
李欣余 河海大学海洋学院
陆日宇 中国科学院大气物理研究所
陈桂兴 中山大学
陈锐丹 中山大学大气科学学院
发表评论
验证码 看不清楚,更换一张
全部评论
重要日期
  • 会议日期

    04月17日

    2025

    04月20日

    2025

  • 04月03日 2025

    初稿截稿日期

  • 04月20日 2025

    注册截止日期

主办单位
中国科学院大气物理研究所
承办单位
中国科学院大气物理研究所
联系方式
移动端
在手机上打开
小程序
打开微信小程序
客服
扫码或点此咨询