Projection of future changes in global terrestrial near-surface wind speed and its uncertainty
编号:72 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2022-07-01 23:36:48 浏览:439次 口头报告

报告开始:2022年07月27日 15:15(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S5] 气候系统和气候变化 [S5-1] 议题5气候系统和气候变化27日下午

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摘要
Understanding future changes in global terrestrial near-surface wind speed (NSWS) in specific global warming level (GWL) is crucial for climate change adaption. Previous studies have projected the NSWS changes; however, the changes of NSWS with different GWLs have yet to be studied. In our study, we employ the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model large ensembles to evaluate the contributions of different GWLs to the NSWS changes. The results show that the NSWS decreases over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-to-high latitudes and increases over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) as the GWL increases by 1.5–4.0 ℃ relative to the preindustrial period, and that
these characteristics are more significant with the stronger GWL. The probability density of the NSWS shifts toward weak winds over NH and strong winds over SH between the current climate and the 4.0 ℃ GWL. Compared to 1.5 ℃ GWL, the NSWS decreases -0.066 m s-1 over NH and increases +0.065 m s-1 over SH with the 4.0 ℃ GWL, especially for the East Asia and South America, the decrease and increase are most significant, which reach -0.21 and +0.093 m s-1, respectively. Changes in the temperature gradient induced by global warming could be the primary factor causing the interhemispheric asymmetry of future NSWS changes. Intensified global warming induces the reduction in Hadley, Ferrell, and Polar cells over NH and the strengthening of the Hadley cell over SH could be another determinant of asymmetry changes in NSWS between two hemispheres.
关键词
Near-surface wind speed,CMIP6,1.5 and 3.0℃ global warming level,Large ensembles,future projections
报告人
查进林
副教授 云南大学地球科学学院;中国科学大气物理研究所东亚区域-气候环境重点实验室

稿件作者
查进林 中国科学院大气物理研究所;云南大学地球科学学院
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    07月27日

    2022

    07月28日

    2022

  • 06月30日 2022

    初稿截稿日期

  • 07月19日 2022

    注册截止日期

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