The “One Belt, One Way” initiative focuses on encouraging Chinese companies to invest in other countries and face new challenges. Investment diversification and risk management of overseas investment projects catch the eye of many parts of engineering. Research and exploration of project risk management abroad is increasingly important. This paper considers trade between China and Brazil as an example to analyze the life-cycle risk of international rail investment. The approach aims to analyze project lifecycle risks and promote government, financial, monetary, legal, logistic and partnership risk assessments to ensure that a large passenger train project from China to Brazil meets all requirements. technical, environmental and lead time for long term projects and also profitable for the Chinese company. The proposal is a scientific application of life cycle management, risk matrix study and Monte Carlo simulation, showing the importance of the theory and its tools in the study of different scenarios, providing important collaboration to decision makers when subjected to the risks of project. From the risk analyzes, cost or time-based random samples (random variables) were generated and then "tested" each sample model for an iteration, providing an estimate of the expected time or cost value and the estimated error. The simulations for the 5000 random universes of the selected sample had a minimum value of 836.65 in the worst case (16.33% of the damage compared to the proposed value); and a maximum value of 1,248.08, at worst (23.79% profit over the proposed value). There are still areas for improvement and more risks that need to be explored using the study of other risks and other types of contracts, but the proposal makes an important contribution to proving the feasibility of life cycle application and risk matrix study in long term projects. Keywords: risk analysis, life cycle, risk matrix, Monte Carlo simulation, international train supply.

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