The future of fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) depends on its cost and performance competitiveness in the automobile market. In this study, we develop a techno-economic analysis framework to compare the cost and performance of major vehicle technologies (internal combustion, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery and fuel cell electric) under various progress scenarios for the years 2035 and 2050. We utilize a vehicle powertrain model to compare vehicle technologies with similar engineering performance and evaluate their cost competitiveness. We define the cost as (2018) U.S. dollars per mile driven ($/mile) during a certain ownership period and include the vehicle purchase price and fuel cost. Our results show that, in the 2035 scenarios, the costs per mile for FCEVs are 36% or 22% higher than those of conventional gasoline cars, based on a 5-year or 15-year ownership period, respectively. In the 2050 scenarios, the 15-year ownership costs of FCEVs are comparable to those of gasoline cars with comparable engineering performance. In all the 2035 and 2050 scenarios, fuel cell vehicles have a lower driving cost compared with electric vehicles with 200-mile driving range. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that hydrogen price and fuel cell system cost are the major uncertainties that determine cost competitiveness of FCEVs.

CICTP