The purpose of the study is to analyze the changed of farmland as a viewpoint of disaster mitigation. Target area is Tokushima Urban Area (TUA), Japan. I analyzed the factors of farmland changes by the Maxent model. It was found from the maxent analysis results that the effect of land use zoning is larger than the facility location. Next, I evaluated the flood disaster risk about farmland changes. Because farmland change has estimated at suburban area, the risk about fluvial flooding increased.