509 / 2019-02-28 17:23:05

Making and evaluating scenarios of future population distribution based on multiple evaluation in the city with population decreasing

multiple evaluation,Scenario creation,Future population distribution,geographic information systems (GIS)

全体主题 > Urban Planning & Modeling

In recent years, “compact city” concept is gaining popularity as suitable ur-ban design for population decreasing. However, it is not clear where these areas should be located. It is important to examine the positive and negative zone for living in term of various perspectives and future urban structure should be designed based on the evaluations. This study aims to examine the high potential area for living in term of six viewpoints such as public transport convenience, disaster risk, environmental load, infrastructure cost, economy and convenience of welfare and medical facilities and create scenarios by concentrating population to efficient zones classified by cluster analysis with evaluation data. Finally, the scenarios are evaluated again in the same method to assess the impact of compaction on some indices and differences from BAU. Results show that cluster 2 zones (around the inside of urbanization areas) are higher positive potential in all indices. The scenario compacted based on all evaluations is more efficient in all aspects than BAU. However, other scenario compacted based on one criterion has tradeoff between other indices.