413 / 2019-02-27 12:18:05

Assessment of landscape changes under different urban dynamics based on a multiple-scenario modeling approach

Urban dynamics; Landscape pattern; Scenario modeling; Redundancy; Munich

全体主题 > Planning Support Systems

As rapid urbanization has become a global issue, changes in land use induced by urban dynamics have critical consequences on landscape patterns and urban environments. In this study, multiple scenarios were developed with respect to the following three dimensions that influence the processes of urban dynamics: housing demand (high, medium, or low), urban spatial structure (monocentric or polycentric), and urban growth form (sprawl, compact sprawl, or compact). The landscape pattern changes were characterized and quantified by using a set of landscape metrics among which the redundancy was reduced by principal component analysis. Key findings indicate that, urban growth in all scenarios mainly led to the loss of open space, but the specific land use transitions were different in sub-regional zones. The changes of the patch complexity index and the landscape configuration index were mostly similar at both levels. Yet, the landscape diversity index showed contrasting trends between the Urban Core Zone and the other two zones (Peri-Urban and Rural), which is related to whether settlements are the dominant land use in these zones or not. This novel and straightforward scenario modeling approach may offer a powerful tool for planners and government authorities to gain a more precise understanding of the different urban growth processes and their impacts on the urban landscape.